Photo above is by David Covell of www.JoesPond.com.

Ice Watch 2012
Here is a picture of our 2012 Ice Out Contest winner. She's Judy Lavely of Danville. Also pictured is George Anderson, JPA Treasurer. The picture was taken at the boat launch during a short winner's ceremony on Saturday, April 14.

The winner of the 2012 Joe's Pond Ice Out Contest is Judy Lavaley of Danville. She won $4721.00.

4/8/12, 7:00 pm - The ice is out!!! The time was 5:25 pm on April 8. We will announce a winner soon.

4/6/12, 7:00 pm - The ice continues to look weaker, but it's not out yet.

4/5/12, 7:00 pm - More progress is visible at the iceout flag site. The ice has pulled back further from the shore. As it pulls out further in coming days, open water will get closer to the flag. Open water is making its way to the flag.

4/4/12, 7:00 pm - The ice looks darker tonight maybe because it's saturated with water. In 2010, the ice went out on April 5.

4/2/12, 7:00 am - There was a small amount of snow overnight, and it did freeze here, so the iceout flag this morning looks like it does in late winter, except that the ice is somewhat pulled away from the shore. The water near shore has "cat ice" on it. Even though the ice near the flag looks frozen solidly, it's hard to say what's going on underneath the ice.

4/1/12, 7:00 pm - We're having light snow with temperatures in the low 30's. Ice is still covering most of the pond, with no dramatic changes today. The ice on Lake Winnipesaukee, just an hour and a half sourth and east of here, went out on March 23rd at 9:30 am.

3/31, 7:00 pm - No visible change. April 1 is the last day to buy tickets at one of the outlets. Tickets sent in the mail must be postmarked 3/31.

3/30, 7:00 pm - Open water is beginning to make its way down the pond from north to south. However, the open water is still so far north that it can't yet be seen from the area near the iceout pallet. Still waiting for more progress.

3/29, 7:00pm - The melting of the ice must be making progress. It's just hard to see. The ice in the broad pond, as observed from West Shore Road, looks solid. However, the ice isn't firmly attached to the shore, like it was a week ago.

3/28, 7:00 am - See the Local News Blog (above) for pictures of the ice from today. No change to report. Just a little snow on top of the ice.

3/27, 7:00 pm - There is again no change to report. The ice appears to be making some small progress each day.

3/26, 7:30 pm - There is again no change to report. Temps tonight should be in the low teens.

3/26, 7:30 am - No change today. It's much cooler at about 25 degrees here today. The wind is blowing.

3/25, 7:30 pm - No real change to report except the ice seems to get a little darker each day. Tomorrow's temperatures may not get out of the 30's.

3/24, 4:00 pm - All is quiet. It's cooler today - in the low 50's. Here's the weather forecast.

3/23 - The ice in both the first and second ponds (smaller ones) is showing considerable loss today. The ice in the big pond is still solid but showing darker color.

3/22 - We're still watching the ice. Temperature today was around 70, but tomorrow will be cooler. There's a news report today that Lake Winnepesaukee, just an hour and a half south and east of here, is expecting an early iceout, possibly a record. Here's a link to the article.

3/21 - It's now 9:00 pm. We've just completed the third of four very warm days in a row. The temperature today reached about 75 degrees. The ice deteriorates a little more each day, of course. See the "Local News Blog" (above) for some pictures of today's ice.

3/20 - We heard a report that some people believe they can't choose a date in March on their iceout ticket. That isn't true. Any date is ok, including dates in March.

3/18 - The temperature is 66 at 4:30 as this report is written. A long time Joe's Pond ice observer visited camp today. The comment that ensued went something like this: before I came to camp, I thought the ice would surely go out before the 1st; but, now I think it will go out after. well, of course we're going to get 70 degree temperatures all week. It's a confusing message, but maybe it has merit just for that reason. Here's a picture of the ice from today, if you didn't see it on the blog. You can see open water in the narrows only (just beyond the fisherman).

3/13 - Welcome back! It's already time to watch the ice again. It may seem early, but it's not, because the weather here at JP is unusual this year. The forecast for the next week is for warm weather, and next Monday the temperature may even reach the low 70's. There's a lot of talk here about the iceout happening before 4/1. The ice does look a little grayish already. However, we heard some common sense comments today from a Joe's Ponder who spends the winter here, and who spends time on the ice. He said the ice is still over two feet thick and shows no ill effects from the temperatures. Despite what's going on with the temperatures, he said he'll be surprised if the ice goes out before 4/1. Come back for more information. You'll find posts here whenever changes in the ice and the weather occur.

The Joe's Pond Iceout Contest

Ticket Information

Tickets are available for printing online or by contacting JPA (email: JP Webmaster). Remember to keep the receipt portion of the ticket and send the stub with $1 for each ticket to: JPA, PO Box 111, W Danville, VT 05873. Make checks payable to "Joe's Pond Association".

2012 tickets are also available as of 7/1/2011 through 4/1/2012 in the West Danville outlets. 2012 tickets will be available at other outlets from 3/1/2012 through 4/1/2012. The list of outlets is as follows:

Cabot - Harry's Hardware;
West Danville - Joe's Pond Country Store and Hasting's Store;
Danville - Marty's 1st Stop and Diamond Hill;
St. Johnsbury - Caplans, Natural Provisions and St. Jay Hardware;
St Johnsbury Center - Thurston Auto, and The Tower;
Barre - Barre Subway, Dente's Market, Hope Cemetery, Barre Optical, Berg Carmolli and Kent, and Yankee Clipper Barber Shop;
Montpelier - Walker Volkswagon;
Williston - Natural Provisions;
Marshfield - Marshfield Village Store;
Plainfield - Tim's Convenience Store.

Be sure to fill out each ticket stub carefully with your name and address so we will be able to contact you if you are a winner. Return ticket stub(s) with the proper amount of money to: JPA, P.O.Box 111, W Danville VT 05873. Tickets must be in or postmarked on 4/1/2011 at the latest (tickets can be submitted on 4/1). Good luck - and thanks for playing the game!

The Iceout Game and How it Grew

Note: in August, 2011, JPA was contacted by the US Geologica Survey. They asked for permission to include Joe's Pond in their network of New England lakes with long-term ice out date records. The network of lakes project is part of a larger effort that tracks iceout dates and other things to see how they are affected by climate change.

The Joe's Pond Ice-Out Contest came about as a result of cabin fever. In the mid 1980's, Jules Chatot, a Joe's Pond summer resident for many years, regularly visited his camp in the winter. He and his family and friends would hang out together to party, snowmobile, play cards-it was like "deer camp" in the dead of winter, or "spring break" in deep snow with howling winds and muddy roads.

The weather is always a favorite topic of conversation among Vermonters, and by late February or March people in the area of Joe's Pond invariably expand it to "when do you think the ice will go out?"

Jules and his friends, including JPA members Homer Fitts, George Karnady and Don Walker, had been making wagers for years about when the ice would be gone. They'd go into West Danville every day for coffee at the Joe's Pond Country Store or for supplies at Hastings Store, and naturally local folks had strong opinions and took up the challenge. Jules kept track for everyone in a little notebook he kept in his pocket.

Jules was president of the Joe's Pond Association and sometime in 1987, he and his buddies decided to turn the rapidly expanding friendly game into a real contest. They decided "a buck a guess" was fair, but then they needed some foolproof way to determine the actual time the ice was out. They put their heads together and came up with the hi-tech, sophisticated control system that is still in use now, twenty-three years later. They placed an old electric clock (now estimated to be at least 40 years old) on Homer Fitts' deck, tethered it to a cinder block wired to a wooden pallet placed about 100 feet out on the ice just off the fishing access by the Fitts' camp, and there it was-the perfect solution to inevitable arguments about when the ice was actually out of all the nooks and crannies and coves of the pond. When the block went down, the clock stopped, and that was it-the "official" ice-out time. Whoever guessed closest to the date and time the clock stopped won the contest.

That first year, April of 1988, there were a few hundred people in the game. By 1990, there were 1500 tickets sold, and to keep track of all the names, times, and dates, Jules' daughter, Judy, set up a database. In 1994, the database was turned over to an independent contractor, Manuel "Chico" Carcoba, who logged in 2,500 tickets. The game has grown steadily over the years, and in 2007, Chico logged in over 9,000 tickets and after the 2008 contest, he retired. In 2009, Karl Couillard logged in more than 12,000 tickets. People all over the United States and some from overseas play the game.

That first year, Ed Bird from West Danville won with his pick of April 26 at 12:31 p.m. Since then, there have been 25 winners from Vermont and five from out of state. Three times there have been multiple winners, four in 2002 (all Vermonters), three in 2006 (all Vermonters), and four in 2008. There have been 15 winning dates in April, the 16th being the earliest, and seven wins in May, and the latest was May 6 in 1992. Last year the clock stopped on April 5 at 2:46 p.m.

The Joe's Pond Ice-Out Contest isn't as much about winning (although last year the winner got $5,000!!), it is more about playing the game and shaking off some of the effects of a long, cold Vermont winter and muddy spring-and it's about having fun. We aren't sure why so many folks from other states like to get into the game, but it sure makes it more interesting for everyone. The contest may also be about the data we collect. Click on the graph at left to enlarge it. The graph seems to show that the ice out date gets earlier as time goes on. The graph was submitted by Henretta's friend. Henretta said: "My friend from NY is a computer modeler, statistician and scientist." Henretta's friend, the scientist, etc., said: "I did a quick plot of the ice out dates going back to 1988, pretty interesting trend (red line) despite the annual variability. Even though the past 2 years your clock stopped due to wind / ice-rafting rather than the block actually dropping through the ice - I don't think your ice lasted more than another couple of days last year, and this year I'll bet it won't last the week either, so the trend wouldn't change much even if you took those anomalies into account."

Don Walker coordinated the contest for 15 years until 2003 when Dave Parker became chairman. Don is still very active, but now he is free to concentrate more on promotion and PR. In 2009, Diane Rossi and Jane Brown took over as co-chairs. After expenses, proceeds are split between the Joe's Pond Association and the contest winner. The Ice-Out Contest is the biggest fundraiser the Association has. Joe's Pond Association's share of the proceeds is used for our free public July Fourth Fireworks display.

2011 Iceout Contest Results

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The ice on Joe's Pond went out on 4/27/2011 at 10:17 pm. The winner is: Karen Brouillette, Websterville, VT. Karen won $4,858.

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Photo below is by David Covell of www.JoesPond.com.